Pelbagai Strategi Trade News

By | 30/06/2018

Strategies for Trading News


Bagaimana membaca kalendar ekonomi

Harga pasaran cenderung dalam prospek ekonomi masa depan . Sebagai peraturan, pertumbuhan ekonomi bermakna kemakmuran di masa depan yang sama dengan pengukuhan mata wang negara.

Peniaga mencari peluang ini dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi (keluaran ekonomi positif) kerana mereka biasanya menawarkan peluang untuk melonjak ke arah aliran menaik. Sebaliknya, laporan ekonomi menunjukkan kelemahan dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi menyebabkan kelemahan mata wang negara. Oleh itu, nilai mata wang masa depan ditentukan berdasarkan sama ada data sebenar mencecah, merosot atau melebihi paras ramalan.

Kalendar ekonomi adalah alat penting yang membantu peniaga tidak ketinggalan peristiwa penting. Strukturnya mudah. Penunjuk ekonomi disenaraikan dalam jadual untuk tempoh masa yang dipilih. Di sebelah penunjuk tertentu anda melihat tiga lajur data: bacaan sebelumnya, ramalan, dan bacaan sebenar. Sebelum pengeluaran, kalendar hanya mengandungi bacaan sebelumnya dan ramalan. Bacaan sebenar muncul pada masa pengeluaran.

Ramalan adalah apa yang dipanggil “konsensus” ramalan atau, dalam erti kata lain, media anggaran daripada beberapa pakar, penganalisis pasaran yang telah ditinjau sebelum penerbitan kenyataan tertentu. Jika data sebenar lebih baik daripada ramalan, mata wang itu menghargai. Jika angka sebenar lebih buruk dari yang dijangkakan, mata wang ini cenderung menurun. Dalam kebanyakan kes, “lebih baik” bermakna lebih tinggi daripada ramalan dan “teruk” bermakna lebih rendah daripada ramalan. Walau bagaimanapun, terdapat beberapa pengecualian kepada peraturan ini, seperti tuntutan pengangguran dan kadar pengangguran: yang lebih rendah indikator ini, lebih baik untuk mata wang yang berkenaan. Kita juga perlu ambil perhatian bahawa bilangan yang hampir dengan paras ramalan biasanya tidak dapat dielakkan. Semakin besar perbezaan antara jumlah sebenar dan ramalan, semakin besar kesannya di pasaran.

Nilai sebelumnya tidak begitu penting seperti ramalan. Namun, kadang-kadang bacaan terdahulu dapat disemak semula. Semakan ini cenderung berlaku pada masa nilai sebenar dibebaskan. Sekiranya semakan itu penting, ia akan menyumbang kepada kesan berita yang ada di pasaran.

 

Petua penting

  1. Tumpukan pada berita paling penting yang boleh menghasilkan kesan terbesar di pasaran.
  2. Tunggu untuk penerbitan siaran yang dipilih, dan kemudian menyelami ke dalam perdagangan mengikut rancangan itu.
  3. Ingat bahawa tindak balas pasaran terhadap siaran berita biasanya berlangsung dari 30 min hingga 2 jam.
  4. Jika hujah asas anda dan analisis teknikal gagal dan reaksi pasaran kepada berita tidak sepadan jangkaan anda, jangan pergi terhadap pasaran.
  5. Ikut trend pasaran (mungkin anda terlepas beberapa butiran penting dalam analisis anda, atau disalah tafsir kesan pelepasan yang diberikan kepada penerbitannya).
  6. Jangan tergesa-gesa untuk berdagang. Tunggu isyarat yang benar-benar kuat dan pengesahan mereka.

Dan sekarang mari kita mengkaji tiga strategi yang boleh digunakan untuk perdagangan berita.

Fokus Utama :

  • Berita dagangan berbahaya kerana pergerakan harga liar dan tidak menentu boleh melangkaui pedagang
  • Peniaga perlu berhati-hati dengan pengurusan risiko, ingin memanfaatkan apabila di sebelah kanan langkah itu
  • Kami berkongsi tiga jenis strategi untuk perdagangan semasa berita


Hari besar di sini, dan laporan Non-Farm Payrolls yang banyak ditunggu-tunggu oleh dunia akan akhirnya akan diumumkan esok pagi pukul 8.30 pagi di New York.

Pengumuman berita tentang sifat ini boleh membunuh mereka sendiri dengan jumlah minat yang mereka terima. Tetapi, penting untuk mengetahui bahaya dan risiko perdagangan pada peristiwa sedemikian. Tiada siapa di dunia yang mempunyai idea bagaimana cara NFP akan bergerak … dan walaupun mereka melakukannya, tidak ada cara untuk mengetahui dengan tepat bagaimana pergerakan harga pasaran itu.

Berikut adalah tiga cara peniaga boleh berdagang di sekitar pengumuman berita penting seperti NFP.

Tetapi, sebelum kita menentukan strategi, saya ingin menegaskan bahaya perdagangan dalam persekitaran sedemikian. Ramai profesional memilih untuk mengelakkan perdagangan semasa pengumuman berita berimpak tinggi hanya kerana betapa berbahaya atau tidak menentu mereka.

Jika anda tidak pernah berdagang semasa salah satu acara ini, atau jika anda tidak merasa selesa mengambil risiko luar yang tidak dapat dielakkan dengan pengumuman berimpak tinggi ini, berdagang pada akaun demo atau menjauhinya. Tidak semestinya tidak memalukan kerana takut pasaran; Inilah yang membantu para pedagang terus hidup. Bravado atau machismo benar-benar tidak bernilai jika anda menghabiskan semua ekuiti anda. Anda boleh mendapatkan akaun demo secara percuma.

1. The ‘Slingshot’ Strategy


Strategi ini kelihatan memanfaatkan kekacauan yang mungkin berlaku semasa pergerakan yang sangat kuat. Dalam strategi ini, peniaga ingin memasuki kepasaran ke NFP dengan kedudukan kekuatan penuh, supaya jika ketidakstabilan yang dibuat di sekeliling pengumuman tersebut dapat mendorong perdagangan mereka secara mendalam ke dalam keadaan yang menguntungkan, mereka dapat melihat untuk mengambil peluang keuntungan itu .

Slingshot (Ketajaman kelihatan) mencari kedudukan yang memenangi apabila perdagangan bergerak dengan niat peniaga, dan pelbagai penyertaan atau strategi masuk boleh digunakan untuk mencetuskan kedudukan awal.

Pengenalan sokongan dan rintangan adalah satu keperluan sebelum membuka sebarang jawatan. Peniaga juga boleh mengambil langkah ini lebih jauh dengan melihat kepada carta jam atau empat jam untuk menentukan apa-apa trend yang mungkin wujud yang membawa kepada pengumuman. Dengan cara ini, jika kecenderungan berlaku ke NFP berlaku selepas data dikeluarkan, peniaga boleh berada di sebelah kanan pergerakan.

Support dan Resistance sangat penting kerana itu adalah ‘titik cut’ yang mana peniaga boleh menutup kedudukan jika harga akan bergerak terlalu jauh terhadap mereka. Berhenti untuk  long positions boleh berada di bawah sokongan, dan berhenti untuk short positions boleh berada di atas rintangan supaya jika salah satu daripada tahap ini dipecahkan, kerugian dapat dikurangkan.

The Slingshot kelihatan memanfaatkan langkah yang diperpanjang dalam arah pedagang

 

3 Strategies for Trading News (NFP)Prepared by James Stanley

Traders can even incorporate a technical-trigger into the trade with an indicator like MACD like we had explained in the article, MACD as an Entry Trigger.

A key note here: Traders are advised to investigate stop distance on their positions ahead of a data announcement as heavy as NFP. Spreads can widen very quickly as market makers don’t want to take a loss on the print just as much as retail traders. When spreads widen, stops can be triggered before prices begin trending and this can be disastrous for the trader.

Imagine the scenario in which you went into NFP with a long EURUSD position carrying a 20 pip stop… If spreads widen out to 40 pips, that would trigger your stop and execute the stop order ‘at best.’ This could entail additional slippage beyond your 20 pip stop.

But, if prices then trend up 150 pips on the EURUSD you have no position remaining even though you were right in the long position.

Unfortunately, it’s impossible to know how widely spreads might spike during any given news release, NFP especially. Traders generally want to investigate a minimum stop distance of 40 pips or more, and even then quick volatility may make the position vulnerable.

This is but another reason that trading in news environments is so dangerous; but the potential rewards could be huge if the trader can find themselves on the right side of the position, and that’s what the slingshot is all about.

If the trader is able to navigate this terrain without getting a stop hit, that’s where the slingshot comes in as traders can scale out of profitable positions as prices may surge in their favor.

The News Reversal

Trading reversals is inherently dangerous in a normal environment; but when adding in the additional risk around news announcements, it can make this type of strategy very dangerous.

Strong money and risk management is a requirement for success in these environments, because you’ll never be sure of which reversals may follow-thru.

Like the Slingshot strategy, traders want to go into the release with support and resistance levels identified. Then they wait for the news.

In the immediate period following the news announcement, the trader can watch prices to see if those longer-term support or resistance levels come into play. And if they do, the trader watches to try to get an idea as to whether or not those levels are going to hold.

The News Reversal

3 Strategies for Trading News (NFP)Prepared by James Stanley

Price action can be of huge help here. Traders want to see support coming in to the market at these longer-term levels before triggering a long position with a stop below support. The key here is fitting in tightly so that if the reversal doesn’t play out, the position is taken out quickly. But if that support level does hold, the trader can begin scaling out once the position starts moving in their favor in an effort to capture as much upside as possible.

The ‘Use the News’ Long-Term Strategy

Non-Farm Payrolls can be a game changer. A big beat or miss can stop a trend dead in its tracks and create massive reversals.

But this doesn’t happen every month. In many cases, enormous volatility is created around the announcement with perhaps some slight follow-through thereafter; only to see trends resuming their previous trajectory.

This can potentially be a huge opportunity for longer-term traders to pick up or add positions at a much more favorable price than they would have otherwise been able to. Let’s look at an example for more clarity.

Let’s say that Joe is bearish on the EURUSD for whatever reason. Perhaps he’s just a really big USD bull, or maybe he’s a non-believer in the European Recovery. Whatever the reason, Joe knows he wants to get short EURUSD.

But after spending a month confined to a meager range near long-term support, Joe hasn’t had a compelling entry opportunity in the pair.

Joe can go into NFP looking to do some bargain-hunting. He can look at his longer-term chart to establish some resistance levels in which he’d like to sell if prices can make their way up there.

The next step in the process is to wait for the news to come out to see if prices can move up into this resistance zone so that Joe can enact an order.

The ‘Use the News’ Long-Term Approach

3 Strategies for Trading News (NFP)Prepared by James Stanley

Once price moves into resistance, Joe can begin looking to sell with a stop above the resistance zone. Traders can look at a shorter-term chart to look for price action indications of bullish or bearish reversal patterns to increase the potential effectiveness of the strategy.

— Written by James Stanley

 

Slingshot strategy

If you’re trading in a highly volatile market, your stops can be triggered before prices begin trending. This could be disastrous for your bet.

Before opening a position, identify support and resistance. These are your “cut points”: you can close the position at these levels if prices go against you. Authors of the strategy advice to define stop loss distance before the publication of the news report. In order to reduce the risks during the highly volatile period of news releases you can do the following thing: once you notice on an H1 chart that the price is 10 pips below the key support, put a BUY STOP entry order 10 pips above that key level. This way you will be able to benefit on the market’s reversal after some initial swing.

Same is with a short position: once you notice on an H1 chart that the price is 10 pips above the key resistance, put a SELL STOP entry order 10 pips below that key level.

The slingshot strategy seeks to scale out of winning positions as the trade moves in trader’s favor. If prices go in your favor, but you’re not sure how long such move will last, you may scale out your position (partially close it). If the prices keep going in the same direction, you can repeat the same procedure at further levels.

slingshot strategy.png

Trading on expectations: buy the rumor, sell the fact

The idea is very straightforward: you should understand the market’s sentiment in relation to a particular currency and open position according to the direction of this sentiment. There are short-term and long-term market sentiments. Many traders prefer trading during short periods of time, as they don’t have sufficient amount of money to maintain open positions in the periods of high volatility.

Short-term sentiment is defined by economic news. If market participants expect the data to exceed the consensus forecast, they will take this into consideration. For example, if market participants wait for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its interest rate, the exchange rate of the AUD will be rising before the bank’s meeting (the probable rate hikes will be well priced in by the time the actual RBA meeting takes place). Once the RBA raised its interest rate, those market participants who had been ready for such turn of affairs would probably start selling AUD/USD and the pair would actually decline and not increase after the rate hike.

In order to be better off in such situation, you need to:

  1. Be up-to-date on the forthcoming events and economic releases.
  2. Keep track of the recent economic releases and watch for the market’s reaction.
  3. Know the correlation between various news releases (for example, how retail sales may influence GDP, PPI, CPI, ext.; if retail sales go ahead of market’s expectation, we may wait for a strong GDP release).

Trading spikes

This strategy can be applied when you trade on the very important news or economic releases such as Non-Farm Employment Change (Non-Farm Payrolls – NFP). It’s one of the most influential statistic indicators published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It measures the number of jobs created in the nonfarm sector in the US in a month. NFP is usually released on the first Friday every month.

Nonfarm payrolls may send lots of shockwaves to the technical charts. That’s why many traders prefer to wait for the dust to settle (they don’t rush into the trade right after the announcement) and trade when they grasp a better idea of the effect the release has produced.

Your actions before the release: look at the range in which the pair is trading at the present moment, then in 5 minutes before the release place two pending orders (BUY STOP – 20 pips above the current price and SELL STOP – 20 pips below the current price).

Place |Take Profit orders 40 pips above and below the current price. You can place your Stop Loss at the current price in 5 minutes before the release or choose not to place it at all. In case of a favorable outcome, you can close the deal with profit (don’t forget to close another order). If you are lucky you can make money from both your bets (if prices change their direction and go higher/lower before falling/rising).

If the outcome is negative, the prices will move in the one of the direction, open the first order, but fail to reach your take profit. Then, prices will move in the opposite direction, open another order, but won’t reach the take profit level as well. If you have a stop, your losses will be limited. If you didn’t place any stops upon your entry, you can try to compensate your losses by opening new orders, although the risks in such case will increase.

spikes.png

July 8, 2016

On that day US NFP added 287K (the forecast was 175K). However, the unemployment rate increased more than expected (from 4.7% to 4.9%), that’s why there was such volatile and contradictory reaction in EUR/USD.

How to Trade the News Using the Straddle Trade Strategy

What if there was a way to make money quickly even if you had no idea whether the market would move up or down?

It’s possible as long as there is sufficient price volatility.

And when can you get this volatility? When news like economic data or central bank announcements is released!

The first thing to consider is which news reports to trade.Earlier, we discussed the biggest moving news releases.

Ideally, you would want to only trade those reports because there is a high probability the market will make a big move after their release.

The next thing you should do is take a look at the range at least 20 minutes before the actual news release.

The high of that range will be your upper breakout point, and the low of that range will be your lower breakout point.Note that the smaller the range is the more likely it is you will see a big move from the news report.

The breakout points will be your entry levels.

This is where you want to set your orders. Your stops should be placed approximately 20 pips below and above the breakout points, and your initial targets should be about the same as the range of the breakout levels.

Straddle Trade

This is known as a straddle trade.

You are looking to play BOTH sides of the trades.

It doesn’t matter which direction the price moves, the straddle strategy will have you positioned to take advantage of it.

Straddle Trade

Now that you’re prepared to enter the market in either direction, all you have to do is wait for the news to come out.

Sometimes you may get triggered in one direction only to find that you get stopped out because the price quickly reverses in the other direction.

However, your other entry will get triggered and if that trade wins, you should recoup your initial losses and come out with a small profit.

A best case scenario would be that only one of your trades gets triggered and the price continues to move in your favor so that you don’t incur any losses.

Either way, if done correctly you should still end up positive for the day.

One thing that makes a non-directional bias approach attractive is that it eliminates any emotions. You just want to profit when the move happens.

This allows you take advantage of more trading opportunities because you will be triggered either way.

There are many more strategies for trading the news, but the concepts mentioned in this lesson should always be part of your routine whenever you are working out an approach to taking advantage of news report movements.

 

1 Minute Forex News Trading Strategy-Learn How to Trade Forex Currency News

Strategi perdagangan berita forex 1 minit adalah strategi lain di mana anda boleh gunakan untuk berdagang berita mata wang.

Setiap bulan, pasaran mata wang mempunyai berita yang bergerak di pasaran yang diumumkan dari employment rateskeputusan kadar faedah, ke non-farm payroll kepada employment rates.

Apabila berita ini keluar dengan angka atau nombor mereka, pasaran mata wang bertindak balas kepada ini jadi jika anda ingin mengumumkan pengumuman berita, anda mungkin ingin mencuba strategi ini.

Timeframe: 1 minit (tetapi anda juga boleh menggunakan 5minutes dan 15 minit juga)

Pasangan Mata Wang: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCHF

Penunjuk Forex: Tiada yang diperlukan

LATAR BELAKANG UNTUK STRATEGI PERDAGANGAN INI

Dengan strategi perdagangan berita ini, anda menunggu sehingga berita diumumkan dan lihat apa angka-angka itu. Anda membiarkan tindak balas pasaran awal mengambil kursus tetapi anda sedang mencari isyarat untuk masuk apabila pasaran membalikkan sementara untuk membolehkan anda mendapatkan kemasukan yang baik.

Contohnya, Bank Rizab Australia mengumumkan peningkatan kadar faedah dari 3 hingga 3.25%

Reaksi terhadap berita jenis ini akan melihat dolar Australia meningkat dalam beratus-ratus pips dalam beberapa minit.

Tetapi dengan sistem ini, anda tidak melompat dalam tergesa-gesa awal. Anda juga tidak trade the breakouts. Anda hanya menunggu harga stabil sedikit dan ketika itu anda masuk pasaran.

Di mana untuk mendapatkan berita dan tarikh forex mereka dijadualkan dikeluarkan? Lebih di forexfactory.

Forex Factory News Calendar

 

PERATURAN TRADING
  1. Teruskan ke forexfactory.com dan lihat masa berita itu dijadualkan dikeluarkan.
  2. Beberapa saat selepas berita dikeluarkan, refresh halaman forexfactory supaya anda dapat melihat angka (s) berita tersebut.
  3. jika berita itu baik untuk mata wang asas, harga akan naik, jika harga yang buruk, akan jatuh.
  4. beralih ke jangka masa 1 minit (jika anda menggunakannya) dan lihat candlesticks tinggi atau rendah.
  5. Untuk persediaan Beli, jika berita baik dan mata wang melonjak, anda akan melihat candlesticks 1 minit membuat tinggi baru dan tinggi rendah. Kemudian harga akan mula berbalik dan apa yang anda akan lihat ialah paras tertinggi akan lebih rendah dan paras terendah akan lebih rendah daripada candlestick sebelumnya.
  6. Isyarat membeli akan muncul apabila candlestick melepasi puncak candlesticks sebelumnya. Anda segera beli pada harga pasaran.
  7. Tetapkan stop loss pada 15 pips dan tetapkan target keuntungan ambil anda pada 45 pips (3 kali apa risiko anda).

BACA Kadar Faedah Terbaik Strategi Dagangan Forex Berita-Belajar Cara Menentukan Keputusan Tarif Bunga

 

1 minute forex news trading strategy

Dalam contoh carta di atas, perhatikan bahawa anda akan membuat perdagangan belian 7 minit kemudian atau saya harus mengatakan 7 candlesticks kemudian?

 

CADANGAN SETUP BUY BAGI CARTA 15 MINUTE

Carta di bawah adalah persediaan yang sama di atas tetapi dilihat dalam TF 15 minit.

 

1 minute forex news trading system

 

APAKAH PERATURAN SETUP JUAL

Untuk setup jual, yang bertentangan dengannya. Berikut adalah contoh persediaan menjual supaya anda mendapat idea tentang apa yang saya bicarakan di sini:

1 minute forex news trading strategy example

NOTA TAMBAHAN

Jika anda menggunakan masa 5 minit atau tempoh 15 minit untuk berdagang berita dengan cara ini, anda boleh menggunakan BUY stop atau SELL stop pending order.

 

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